ፓትርያርክ አቡነ ጳውሎስ ዛሬ ሌሊት ዐረፉ

 

By ዳንኤል ክብረት

ብጹዕ ወቅዱስ አቡነ ጳውሎስ ፓትርያርክ ዘኢትዮጵያ ዐርፈዋል፡፡

እግዚአብሔር ነፍሳቸውን ይማር

ብጹዐን ሊቃነ ጳጳሳት፣ ካህናትና ምእመናን ይህ ነገር በቤተ ክርስቲያኒቱ ላይ ያልታሰበ አደጋ እንዳያመጣ ጥንቃቄ የተሞላ ሃይማኖታዊና ጥበባዊ ሥራ መሥራት አለባቸው፡፡ በዚህ ጊዜ ውስጥ አራት ነገሮች እንዳይፈጠሩ ጥንቃቄ ያስፈልጋል

1. የእርሳቸው ደጋፊና ተቃዋሚ በሆኑ አካላት መካከል በሚፈጠር ግጭት ቤተ ክርስቲያኒቱ እንዳትታወክ
2. ሀብት እና ቅርስን የማሸሽ አዝማሚያ እንዳይከሰት
3. ቤተ ክርስቲያኒቱን ማን ለጊዜው ይምራት በሚለው ዙርያ በሚፈጠረው ልዩነት አደጋ እንዳይከሰት
4. በቀጣይስ ማን በወንበሩ መቀመጥ አለበት በሚለው ዙርያ ችግር እንዳይከሰት

አሁን የመረጋጊያ ጊዜ ነው፡፡ ቅዱስ ሲኖዶስ ምንም ዓይነት ውሳኔ ከመስጠቱ በፊት ለፓትርያርኩ የኀዘን ጊዜ ያውጅ፡፡ ጊዜያዊ ኮሚቴ ያቋቁም፡፡ ነገሮችን በግልጽነት ለሕዝቡ ይፋ ያድርግ፡፡ ከግብጽ ቤተ ክርስቲያን ልምድ ይውሰድ፡፡ ማንኛውም የፓትርያርኩ ንብረቶች ወደ ሌሎች ከመጓዛቸው በፊት በጥብቅ ይቀመጡ፡፡ የባንክ ሂሳቦች ይዘጉ፡፡

አሁን የመረጋጊያ ጊዜ ነው፡፡ ለሀገሪቱም ሆነ ለቤተ ክርስቲያኒቱ ሲባል ቤተ ክርስቲያኒቱን በዚህ ሁኔታ ወደ ጸጥታ ወደብ የሚመራ አመራር ያስፈልጋል፡፡

ዝርዝሩን እንመለስበታለን፡፡

Ethiopia: Has Meles Gone AWOL?

Prof. Alemayehu G/Mariam

An AWOL “Prime Minister”?

What happens when a “prime minister” goes AWOL? That is, absent without constitutional leave of absence.  Dictator Meles Zenawi has disappeared from public view for several weeks now. He was last seen in public on June 19 at the G20 Summit in Mexico. His disappearing act has provided more grist for speculation and caused pained and grimaced official obfuscation. On July 19, in a rambling, disjointed and incoherent press statement, Zenawi’s spinmesiter and “communication minister”, Bereket Simon, stonewalled any information on Zenawi’s health and whereabouts by offering a cryptic and manifestly dubious explanation. Simon said Zenawi was receiving medical care for some undisclosed minor health problem at some undisclosed location. The cause of Zenawi’s health problem is alleged to be exhaustion resulting from long public service. Simon’s statement strangely suggested that Zenawi was simultaneously at a medical facility and a Club Med-type vacation spot. Simon assured the public that Zenawi will return to his duties shortly. “Deputy prime minister” Hailemariam Desalegn chimed in with the inane observation that “There is no serious illness at all. It’s minor only. As any human being, he has to get medication and he’ll be coming back soon.” Of course, the overwhelming majority of Ethiopian human beings get no medication whatsoever when they face “serious illness”. Anyway, what exactly is Zenawi’s “not serious illness”? What kind of medication is Zenawi getting? How soon is soon for Zenawi to return to office? Just to keep things in perspective, on July 18 an Agence France Press report citing “several diplomatic sources” reported that Zenawi “is in a critical state” at a hospital in Belgium and that “his life is in danger” and “might not survive”.

Simon put on a nice act at the press conference; but his body language betrayed his words. Simon wore a morose face as he monologued his way through his rehearsed statement. His physical gestures showed all of the forensic signs of a suspect under extreme stress fudging the truth. He was manifestly tense and visibly preoccupied. His demeanor was combative, his posture defensive and his words evasive. He was manifestly  uncomfortable answering questions about Zenawi. He fidgeted and wiggled his fingers, occasionally gesturing. He  squirmed and sat rigidly folding his arms. He avoided eye contact with his questioners. His responses to press questions were repetitive and robotic. He spoke softly and slowly but his words were calculated, halting, artful and guileful. He tried to project the appearance of  being forthcoming while actually providing very little substantive information. In other words, Simon windbagged and sandbagged at the press conference but did not say much that was informative. It was obvious that Simon was not coming clean with the real deal about Zenawi’s situation. Was Simon hiding or covering up something? Simon and Co., may expect us to believe their cock and bull story about a vacationing Zenawi, but we know when we are lied to, deceived, duped, hoodwinked, misled and bamboozled.

In a staged interview with a member of party-controlled media on August 1, Simon continued to stonewall release of any meaningful information on Zenawi’s health or whereabouts. Simon said, “the prime minister’s health is in very good condition. The medical treatment and rest have improved his health. He is in a much better health condition than before.” Simon did not say where Zenawi is getting medical treatment, the nature of his illness and the health improvements he gained over the past couple of weeks, or when he is expected to be back in office.

Simon accused Ethiopian Satellite Television (ESAT), without naming it, of engaging in a “campaign of spreading massive lies and hearsay” about Zenawi. He alleged that ESAT had falsely cited ICJ (sic) [ICG- International Crises Group] as its source of information on the demise of Zenawi which, according to Simon, the ICG had denied. Simon, in characteristic manner, misstated the facts. What the ICG stated in its press release is quite different: “Crisis Group denies media reports about PM’s fate. International Crisis Group has no direct knowledge about the state of health of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.” Any sophisticated reader knows that the phrase “no direct knowledge” is a term of art commonly used by journalists and researchers to protect their confidential sources. “No direct knowledge” simply means the “knowledge” the ICG has on Zenawi is not based on personal observation, direct investigation or surveillance but derived from reliable informant(s). In other words, the ICG does not have direct photographic or physical evidence of Zenawi’s health or fate, but it has indirect informant-based information. This elementary journalistic technique seems to have escaped Simon.

For all his sophistry and obfuscation, Simon seems conveniently oblivious of two simple questions and the old saying that a picture (that is not photoshopped) is worth a thousand words: 1) If Zenawi is in “very good condition”, why not release a photograph of him in that condition?2) If Zenawi is getting rest and relaxation, why not release a picture of him “vegging out” on the beach or touring the museums? The fact of the matter is that the last photograph and video of Zenawi taken in Mexico showed him to be in extremely bad condition. Instead of accusing the opposition of lying and exaggerating information about Zenawi’s health or alleged death, would it not be easier to put them all to shame by producing a one-minute video of Zenawi “in very good condition” taking a dip in the swimming pool or hanging out with four of his crew as reported in the last couple of days? Alternatively, how about one-minute audio tape of Zenawi telling the people that he is doing well and enjoying himself on vacation.

Simon warned there will be no change: “The status quo is maintained – there is no change and there will be no change in the near future.” Is the “status quo” an AWOL “prime minster”, an invisible “deputy prime minister”, a shadowy group of power brokers scheming behind the scenes, a manifest power and leadership vacuum, total confusion and cynicism in the country or the two decade old one-man, one-party dictatorship? At the end of the day, “Stonewall” Simon and Co., will have to answer two questions: Is Zenawi alive, dead, or has he simply gone AWOL? Or is Zenawi now functioning in a new capacity as “absentee prime minister”?

What Can Be Done About a “Prime Minister” Gone AWOL?

The cumulative evidence unmistakably points to the fact that Zenawi is “absent” within the meaning of Article 72(b) of the Ethiopian Constitution which provides, “The Deputy Prime Minister shall… (b) act on behalf of the Prime Minister in his absence.” Zenawi was absent from the annual parliamentary session where the country’s budget was approved. Desalegn “acted on behalf of the prime minster” during that parliamentary session. There is evidence that  Desalegn has chaired “Council of Ministers” meetings, an act he can perform only in the “absence” of  the “prime minister” under Article 72(b). Zenawi was absent from a scheduled NEPAD [New Partnership for Africa’s Development] conference held in Addis Ababa. Senegalese President, Macky Sall chaired the meeting on Zenawi’s behalf. Zenawi has completely vanished from public view for some 46 days. There is no date certain when Zenawi will be present in his office to resume his duties, a fact which points unmistakably to his “absence” from office.

The evasive, equivocating and misleading statements given by Simon and Desalegn to the public on Zenawi’s diagnosis, treatment and prognosis provide clear and convincing evidence that Zenawi is not “present” in Ethiopia let alone functioning as a “prime minister”. The fact that Simon and Desalegn downplayed  Zenawi’s illness as “minor” without revealing the diagnosis is not only manifestly absurd but also an admission of his  “absence” due to serious illness. If Zenawi’s illness is indeed “minor” as Simon and Desalegn insist, they could simply state, for instance, that Zenawi is battling a nasty bout of the flu. The total lack of transparency, the shroud of secrecy and mystery in providing accurate and timely information on Zenawi’s health and whereabouts is compelling proof of Zenawi’s  “absence”.

The key constitutional question about Zenawi’s  “absence” is not whether he is in “good condition”, “recuperating”, “resting”, on vacation or if he plans to come back tomorrow, next week or next month. The dispositive question is whether Zenawi as  “prime minister”, for whatever reason and for whatever length of time, is unable or disabled from performing the “powers and duties of the Prime Minister of the Federal Republic” under Article 74(1) (namely serving as “as head of government, chairman of the Council of Ministers and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces”)  within the meaning of Article 75(b). All of the available evidence points to one, and only one, conclusion: Zenawi is not in a position to discharge his powers and duties under Article 74 and has left his office without constitutional leave of absence.

Are There Constitutional Remedies in the Case of an AWOL Prime Minister?

In light of the clear and convincing evidence that Zenawi is absent from office for purposes of Article 75 (b), can he be declared constitutionally AWOL? If such a declaration could be made, who has the constitutional power and duty to make it?

Article 72(2) prescribes, “The Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers are responsible to the House of Peoples’ Representatives [HPR].” The plain meaning of this provision is that the prime minister is ultimately accountable to the HPR. That accountability imposes, first and foremost, an affirmative duty on the “prime minister” to formally notify and provide the HPR with accurate, ongoing and complete information on his health and whereabouts. The available evidence indicates that netiher Zenawi nor his office has provided such information to the HPR.

Article 55(17) provides that the “House of Peoples’ Representatives has the power to call and to question the Prime Minister and other Federal officials and to investigate the Executive’s conduct and discharge of its responsibilities.  Article 55(18) provides, “at the request of one-third of its members, [the House of Peoples’ Representatives] shall discuss any matter pertaining to the powers of the executive. It has, in such cases, the power to take decisions or measures it deems necessary.” (See also Art. 76(3).) Under Article 58(4), “the Speaker of the House may call a meeting of the House when it is in recess” to take up urgent business.  The Speaker of the House is also obliged to call a meeting of the House at the request of “more than one-half of the members.”

Under the foregoing provisions of the Constitution, the HPR as a whole, or a subset of its members have the constitutional power to call and question the prime minster, deputy prime minster or any other federal officials to ascertain the exact whereabouts and health situation of Zenawi. The HPR has the power to investigate the actual circumstances surrounding Zenawi’s absence from office and complete disappearance from public view. Launching a formal inquiry into the absence of the “prime minister” is an affirmative obligation and unavoidable constitutional duty of the HPR.  Such an inquiry can be initiated at the “request of one-third of [HPR] members” when in session, “more than one-half of the members” when the HPR is in recess and/or by the “Speaker of the House” sua sponte at any time.

There could be other constitutional mechanisms to ascertain and secure a declaration of “absence” under Article 75(b).  It is possible for any  “concerned” or “interested parties” to raise the issue of the “prime minister’s” “absence” as a constitutional matter and seek adjudicatory relief. Article 82 provides for a “Council of Constitutional Inquiry” (CI)  and grants it the power to “to investigate constitutional disputes” and “submit its recommendations to the House of the Federation” pursuant to Article 83(1) which must “within thirty days of receipt, decide a constitutional dispute submitted to it by the Council of Constitutional Inquiry (CI).” Article 17 of the Council of Constitutional Inquiry Proclamation No 250/2001 affirms the CI’s investigatory powers and extends subject matter jurisdiction over “any law or decision given by any government organ or official which is alleged to be contradictory to the constitution…” To seek review in the CI under the Proclamation, a litigant need only be a “concerned party” (Art. 17 (3)) or an “interested party (Art. 20(1); e.g. individual, group, political party, etc.). Such a party can request “inquiry” and adjudication into the constitutionally unexcused “absence” of the “prime minister” from office under Article 75(b).

The “status quo” today, to use “Stonewall”  Simon’s phrase, is that the “prime minister” is “absent” and the  “deputy prime minster” cannot constitutionally succeed the absent “prime minister” under Article 75(b).  As a result, the country has no “head of government” (Art. 74(1)) or a functioning constitutional executive branch. Given the urgent and pressing nature of the issue, a “concerned or interested party” should be able to seek expedited review by the CI.  Alternatively, a “concerned or interested  party” should be able to seek declaratory relief in the “Federal Supreme Court” which has “the highest and final judicial power over Federal matters” under Article 80. Since Article 75(b) raises an indisputable “Federal matter”, the “Federal Supreme Court” should properly exercise jurisdiction and determine whether the “prime minister” is “absent”.

A separate two-pronged constitutional challenge could also be advanced to determine the “absence” of the “prime minister” under subsection 1 of Article 12 of the Constitution which affirmatively requires “activities of government shall be undertaken in a manner which is open and transparent to the public.” The secrecy and shroud of mystery surrounding Zenawi’s whereabouts and health situation is contrary to the constitutional mandate of maintaining an “open and transparent” government. Transparency for purposes of Article 75(b) means providing accurate, complete, timely and ongoing information to the public on the status of the “prime minister” to discharge the duties of his office. The people are entitled to know if their “prime minister” is ill, the general nature of his illness, the general nature of the medical treatment he is receiving, where he is receiving such treatment, the general prognosis and his expected or anticipated date of his return to office and whether he is actually acting as “prime minister” under Article 74(1).  For purposes of Article 72(2), transparency means providing accurate, complete, timely and ongoing information to the HPR. As a last resort, under subsection (3) of Article 12 the “people may recall any one of their representatives whenever they lose confidence in him.” A recall undertaking in Zenawi’s election district could also produce the answer to the question of whether Zenawi is “absent”.

“Simon Says…”

I have often said that talking constitutional law to Zenawi and crew is like preaching Scripture to a gathering of Heathen. All of the foregoing constitutional analysis will fall on deaf ears partly due to lack of constitutional comprehension by Zenawi and crew and mostly because they do not give a damn. They could not care less about the Constitution, the rule of law and the rest of it. Their 21-year record of trashing the principle of the rule of law proves that the Constitution to them  is not worth the paper it is written on. But as someone who believes in the rule of law, I must defend the principle even in the face of seasoned and inveterate constitutional scofflaws.

Having said that, are we all ready to play the well-known children’s game called “Simon says…”? In that game, one player takes the role of  “Simon” and issues instructions (usually physical actions such as “stand up” or “sit down”) to the other players. The instruction should only be followed if prefaced with the phrase “Simon says” as opposed to just making the statement. If a player follows an instruction that is not preceded with the phrase, “Simon says…”, the player is kicked out of the game. The object for the player acting as “Simon” is to get all of the other players kicked “out” of the game as quickly as possible. The winner of the game is the last player who has successfully followed all of the given commands. So “’Stonewall’ Simon says Zenawi will return to his office shortly.”  “Zenawi is on vacation…”  “Simon says Zenawi has gone AWOL…!!!”

Amharic translations of recent commentaries by the author may be found at: http://www.ecadforum.com/Amharic/archives/category/al-mariam-amharic and http://ethioforum.org/?cat=24

Previous commentaries by the author are available at:

http://open.salon.com/blog/almariam/  and http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alemayehu-g-mariam/

Why I Want Meles Zenawi Dead

My Christian background has left me with the principle of not celebrating the death of any human being. I assume wanting the death of someone falls into the same category or at least the two are often confused in conversations. Although I am not a Christian anymore, I still adhere to those types of harmless – and, in fact, positive – principles for practical reasons. I believe that not celebrating the death of others is one of those values that could help me expand the boundaries of my compassion.

However, I also understand that it is not a dogmatic principle that I can’t negotiate with. Other biblical scriptures that I am also a big fan of promote pragmatism: the importance of balance and the necessity to be shrewd when necessary (Matthew 10:16); and the need for understanding that there is time and place for everything (Ecclesiastes 3). Accordingly, when I am faced with issues like Meles Zenawi’s current state of health, my thinking starts with these thoughts already in mind.

Still, at the onset of the rumors about Meles Zenawi’s death, I was conflicted about what I want to happen. But that wasn’t because of some abstract values holding me back, but because I have always fantasized about the day Meles stands in an Ethiopian court. However, it didn’t take me long to admit to myself that, at this point, that is nothing but just a dream. While there is nothing wrong with dreams, there is time to dream and time to be realistic. And for me, being realistic on this issue meant endorsing the removal of Meles from the picture.

I want Meles Zenawi dead for practical reasons.

Meles Zenawi: A Clear and Present Danger

The reason I want Meles Zenawi contained by any effective (least costly) means possible and necessary is not because I disagree with his politics. I do disagree with most of his politics, but, unlike him, I do not believe getting rid of people is the right way of handling disagreements over ideas. Written and verbal debates are my preferred methods of handling differences. Therefore, the reason I want him put under control in one way or another is because I believe he is a danger to citizens.

During at least one major political crisis in Ethiopia – namely, the post 2005 election period – Meles Zenawi was in charge of a large operation of repression, illegal arrests and killings of innocent civilians. We know that he had, prior to the onset of violence, publicly ordered all security forces of the country to be under his direct command. Furthermore, he has admitted in interviews to members of the committee created to investigate the violence to having given the crucial orders during that period. In at least one interview given later on, he has said that what happened then was a result of a political calculation he made, and that he remains unapologetic about it.

Considering that Meles has not been held accountable for the crimes committed under his direct orders during that time, prior to that and after that; considering that he continues to have access to the security forces directly responsible for the crimes; considering that there is no guarantee whatsoever that similar incidents won’t take place in the future, and that, in fact, the regime has since then engaged in large scale violence against civilians in places like the Ogaden, and throughout the country on a smaller scale; one can fairly conclude that Meles represents a live danger to innocent Ethiopian citizens.

Making matters worse, because the regime controls the judiciary branch, there is no hope of holding him accountable for past or future crimes committed under his watch and orders.

Self Defense

Two days ago, in preparation for this blog entry, I wrote about the justifications for self defense.

I believe in the right to self defense. And although this remains controversial and illegal in many, if not all, countries for obvious reasons, I believe that the logical reasoning that is used to justify the right to self defense can be extended to include the right to get rid of political leaders who commit crimes against civilians AND – this is the most important part – have closed down the means with which they could be held accountable. I believe that political leaders who have demonstrated their propensity to have innocent civilians killed unjustly whenever they feel threatened have forfeited their rights not to be killed unjustly.

The underlined part above is very important because it makes a necessary distinction between regimes like that of Ethiopia and democratic governments with functioning and independent institutions. In the latter, where citizens are free to challenge political leaders in court to hold them accountable, there is no need to resort to extrajudicial methods. An example of this is recent challenges that have been lodged in US courts against President Barack Obama’s order to kill an American citizen suspected of terrorism without due process.

In Ethiopia, however, the situation is starkly different. Simply put, the Ethiopian courts have demonstrated time and time again that they are nothing more than the executive’s, i.e. Meles Zenawi’s, fiddle. Persecuted citizens can hope to get a fair trial at an Ethiopian court no more than a person could hope for mercy from Satan.

Putting these situations in consideration, I have long believed that stopping Meles Zenawi – preferably through his arrest or removal from power – is a matter of survival for countless citizens who could become his victims at any time. If those options are not possible, I believe in principle – as he likes to say – that his killing would be a justifiable act of self defense. However, I do not encourage or promote the assassination of Meles Zenawi or any other politician. Not because I don’t find it justifiable, but because it is illegal in my country of residence.

Meles’ Illness: Has God Joined the Pro-Democracy Camp?

All the above options – arrest, removal from power and killing – appear to be next to impossible. There are various types of serious costs associated with each of them. That is where his illness comes in handy. The death or incapacitation of Meles Zenawi due to natural causes is the most effective option of stopping him that I could have never hoped for.

Some say we should not rejoice in his illness because everyone – including ourselves, our mothers, friends and neighbors – get sick too, and that illness has nothing to do with a person’s bad deeds. And as I have said at the beginning of this article, it would be nice not to celebrate the misfortune of others, yes. It is good to practice humaneness as much as possible. However, we should be pragmatic enough to be able to negotiate with values like that. After all, being humane doesn’t mean allowing that hooligan to walk all over you and your mother.

Other Considerations

“But is Meles Zenawi really the source of the problem?” is one of the questions I anticipate from readers. After all, the repressive regime is going to remain in place even if he dies.

We can keep stretching that logic further and say that since it is our culture that keeps churning out these dictators, even the removal of the TPLF regime will not stop the cruelty for a very long time. Maybe; or maybe not. But the fact that the journey is long isn’t reason enough to stop walking forward, is it?

Regarding the specific claim that Meles’ death would not make a difference, however, I have a contention to make. I believe that the removal of Meles from the picture will change the dynamics of Ethiopia’s politics in such a way that pro-democracy citizens will be handed a set of new possibilities that may contain opportunities. The regime will be left without its most important and capable leader, which may translate to a substantial weakness. The ensuing power struggle and uncertainty within the ruling party’s rank and file would also make the regime vulnerable.

Moreover, Meles’ permanent absence would restore hope to the populace. Over the past seven years, as he took step after step to consolidate power, Meles began to look invincible. The ever increasing repression and the inability of opposition groups to bounce back from the attacks launched against them have demoralized citizens. His death would be a reassertion of a fact we seem to have forgotten – that even the powerful have their limits.

That is why I believe that, even if Meles turns up alive, we all have been reminded of his mortality, and that has killed him in some way. What has happened over the past 43 days is a huge blow to the image of invincibility he has worked so hard to build in the past seven years.

I admit the question of whether Meles’ death would make any difference or not deserves its own post. But in the interest of keeping this entry short, I will stop here.

Finally, I would like to address another argument raised on twitter against the celebration of Meles’ death. It goes something like this: wishing Meles’ death is an undemocratic behavior.

Democracy is a system of government, not some deity you worship even in its absence. A democratic system needs to be in place for democratic culture to flourish, and for a citizen to behave democratically or undemocratically. Democracy, like the Tango, takes two. If the system of government isn’t democratic, you can’t create a small “private democratic space” for yourself where you behave “democratically” as if building a temple where you can engage in a religious ritual.

Most importantly, it is the very absence of democracy, and the desperation resulting from it, that makes people like me wish for his death to begin with.

መለስ የእውነት መሞታቸውን ኢሳት አረጋግጫለሁ አለ!

Abetokichaw

ለመጀመሪያ ጊዜ “ታመው በአውሮፓ ሆስፒታል እንደሚገኙ” የነገረን ኢሳት ራዲዮ እና ቴሌቪዥን ድርጅት የተለያዩ ወገኖች “ጠቅላይ ሚኒስትሩ ሞተዋል” እያሉ ሲዘግቡ የቆዩ ቢሆንም፤ በአሁኑ ወቅት ግን አቶ መለስ የእውነት መሞታቸውን አረጋግጫለሁ አለ።

ኢሳት መቀመጫውን ቤልጄም ብራሰልስ ያደረገውን አለም “አቀፉ የግጭት አጥኚ ቡድን” እና አንዳንድ የዲፕሎማት ምንጮችን በመጥቀስ እንደዘገበው ከዚህ በኋላ “ጨዋታው አክትሟል” ብሏል።

Ethiopia PM Meles Zenawi is dead

by Abebe Gellaw

ESAT’s decision to report that Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is dead, according to reliable sources, has never been easy. It was two weeks ago that we received the news from highly credible sources in Brussels. Our sources that want to remain anonymous as they were not authorized to speak to the media on this sensitive matter told us that the International Crisis Group (ICG) concluded that Mr. Zenawi was deceased. Headquartered in Brussels, with offices around the world, ICG is the leading independent think tank on conflict prevention and resolution around the world. It was hard to ignore information from such a highly reputable international organization.

As a responsible media outlet, ESAT tried to investigate and verify the tip meticulously before it decided to broadcast the news. To be fair to the facts, we have also scrutinized the conflicting and contradictory information coming out from the ruling TPLF clique. We have examined not only the statements and stories put out for public consumption by the TPLF, but also their conducts that tell their own stories.

As Meles Zenawi’s 21-year tyrannical rule has surely come to a screeching halt, the TPLF proved to be a heap of mess without its chieftain.  Ethiopia appeared to be leaderless and cheerless. In the absence of its head, the regime appeared to be decapitated, incapacitated, incoherent, disunited, disorganized and disoriented. This is typical of a one-man regime unlike institutionally sound democratic systems (like Ghana) that cannot be easily shaken by the death or absence of one man. Like an untrained ship crew with no captain in sight, the ruling elite seem to be at a loss for direction in the face of a gathering storm.

Look no further than the contradictory statements being issued by the high priests of the ethnic front on the well-being and whereabouts of Mr. Zenawi. While rumors are abounding on the death of the dictator, none of the officials has come out with a convincing explanation where the big man is.

“He is resting from exhaustion… He will be back in ten days…. He is in hospital….No, he is on holiday…. He is in town…No, he is in Europe… No, no, no…he is relaxing in America…,” TPLF officials told the public in the past two weeks. But Zenawi is nowhere to be seen. He was neither in the palace nor in his rubber-stamp parliament making and unmaking laws. And yet, TPLF’s creative stories change within hours and each weird story adds more fuel to wild speculations and rumors.

After the May 18th incident that became a turning-point in the tyrannical life of Mr. Zenawi, he was not seen in public for four weeks. On June 18th, he finally surfaced in Mexico City where he flew to attend a G20 meeting. Instead of quashing rumors about his well-being, the PR stunt unwittingly started a more serious discussion. He significantly lost weight and looked more like a ghost than the charismatic dictator he once seemed. The Chinese state TV, CCTV, broadcast his emaciated image, which was recorded during his meeting with Chinese president Hu Jintao, proved the suspicion of so many people. That was followed by a photo opportunity with Mexican president Felipe Calderon. It was another flop. He looked haggard, tired and gravely ill. The effort led by Berhane Gebrekirstos turned out to be a PR disaster.

On July 15^th the newly-formed Ethiopian National Transitional Council (ENTC) issued a press release declaring the passing away of Mr. Zenawi. The news was received suspiciously. Some people questioned the motive of ENTC to declare the death of Zenawi. In fact, those of us in the news media also felt that ENTC should have passed the information to the media for further investigation. In any case, ENTC attracted more attention on the mysteries surrounding Zenawi’s puzzling health and final destiny spurred heated debate among Ethiopians across the world.

On July 14, 2012 Zenawi reportedly passed away after suffering a few weeks of agony and pains at St-Luke University Hospital in Brussels. The news was received with mixed emotions. While most Ethiopians welcomed the departure of a brutal tyrant that has caused so much pain and suffering on millions of Ethiopians, the news upset the TPLF camp. “Liars! Liars! Liars!..,” cried out camp TPLF without producing any evidence to disprove the news.

For a few days, TPLF chose to be quite. Finally, it broke its silence via the Voice of America. On July 18, Sebhat Nega appeared on VOA Amharic service and told the apprehensive public that Zenawi only suffered a minor illness. He said he was somewhere in Europe getting medical care. According to Nega, who was widely believed to be the mentor of the former dictator, in the absence of Zenawi the “democratic institutions” were working smoothly. Until the chief comes back, according to him, the “deputy prime minister” is in charge. As usual, the old guard’s answers were deliberately vague. They raised more questions than providing any serious answers.

Crisis communication management needs skills and some touch of professionalism. So TPLF felt the need to bring out its topmost communication expert. Unfortunately, the “expert” is the least trusted and one of the most detested members of the ruling elite. It was unwise of TPLF to send out the minister of miscommunication to convince the public that Zenawi is still alive and kicking.

After cancelling his appointments with journalists a couple of times, Bereket Simon, came on July 19th to meet and greet local and foreign journalists. He was flanked by none other than Shimelis Kemal, who insisted all along that news on the illness of Mr. Zenawi was fabricated by ESAT.

Mr. Simon said that Zenawi was exhausted after working restlessly for over thirty years. So an unnamed doctor forced him to go on sick leave. He dismissed reports that he was gravely ill. According to Mr. Simon, the big boss suffered no serious illness but exhaustion that needed a break. He assured us that he would soon be in office after enjoying his holiday. He also contradicted Mr. Nega by saying that Zenawi is in charge of running the country. It appeared that the deputy was not the task of ruling the nation even if the boss is exhausted and took a sick leave.

Mr. Simon was also asked why the Prime Minister’s health and whereabouts have been shrouded in secrecy. According to the communication expert, this is something to do with the culture of the ruling party. He explained that since its days in the jungle, the ethnic front does not dwell on such matters. He gave little weight to rights of the public to know about the health or death of a ruler. Mr. Simon, who was visibly nervous and sipping a glass of water quite frequently, gave inconclusive and bizarre statements that failed to convince us that Zenawi was indeed enjoying his holiday in an unknown tourist resort.

Addis Fortune is a newspaper close to the ruling elite. It is an open secret that the publisher, Tamrat Gebre-Giorgis, is a close associate of the minister of miscommunication and other officials. On June 22, it published a front page interview with a screaming headline: “Meles back in town.” The story, which the paper run as breaking news claimed: “A day after the Ethiopian government officially announced his ailment, Prime Minster Meles Zenawi came back to Addis Abeba, according to a credible source. The Premier came back to town on Friday evening, July 20, 2012, and he is recovering well, the source revealed to Fortune.”

Fortune’s publisher also told everyone that Zenawi is expected to surprise the public by appearing at a press conference. Apparently, the credible source feeding false information is none other than Bereket Simon, who probably thought that disinformation may work to manipulate public opinion. But the widely expected press conference where Zenawi would take center stage never materialized.

Former TPLF propaganda chief and publisher of Ethiopian Reporter, Amare Aregawi, is also very close to the ruling elite. He is widely believed to be a privy to TPLF’s top guns including security chief Getachew Assefa. He too had breaking news for us. Contradicting Addis Fortune’s “big story”, he had a different headline: “Meles on vacation abroad”.

The story dated 25th July declared: “Following the prescribed sick leave, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is currently on vacation outside Ethiopia, The Reporter learnt. Sources told The Reporter that Meles is enjoying the sick leave after he was ordered to take time outside office to recover from his illness resulted from “over workloads for more than three decades.” What was even bizarre was the fact that Reporter told us that Zenawi was enjoying his “holiday” in the United States.

That was not the end of the story coming from officials sources. On July 28, Addis Admas, another paper linked to the ruling elite published an interesting interview with none other than the famous TPLF veteran, Sebhat Nega. The stories keep on changing. But this time, it came to a full circle. He told the paper that Zenawi is having a speedy recovery. “Where is the Prime Minister,” asked the journalist.

“He is in Europe,” he answered. “Where exactly in Europe?” queried the journalist.

“I don’t know exactly ,” says Sebhat Nega, who was supposed to be in the know.

Tyrants are supposed to be seen in full control. How is it that the most visible and domineering man in the last 21 year vanishes into thin air? He is Europe, he is back in town…No, no, no…he is on holiday in the U.S.  Who should the public trust? This must be one of the worst disappearance cases ever known in the history of tyranny.

As a journalist who tried to sift fiction from facts, Meles Zenawi is not back in town, nor is he on holiday in America. As far as I am concerned, our sources at ICG are more credible. I admit that I have not personally seen a death certificate or the dead body of Ethiopia’s former dictator.

Based on the credible information we have received from Brussels, I am convinced that Meles Zenawi is dead. I do not believe that such reputable think tanks like ICG will get this wrong. For the record, ESAT never quoted ICG. It quoted anonymous but credible sources working at ICG in Brussels. We are aware of ICG’s Twit.

Unlike Aigaforum and Tigraionline’s claim’s ICG statement does not disprove the story that Zenawi is gone. The Twit in question reads: “Crisis Group is not in a position to speculate about the fate of PM Meles Zenawi, nor have we commented on it to date.” ESAT never relied on a speculation or comment from ICG. We only had privilege to access confidential information held by ICG that conclusively claimed Zenawi was dead.

I personally challenge the TPLF high command to disprove this fact instead of fabricating conflicting and contradictory stories to convince us that he was alive and kicking. Though some TPLF officials may believe that Zenawi is a superman who can be in Addis Ababa, Europe and America at the same time most Ethiopians do no buy such a fantasy.

The Ethiopian people has a right to know the whereabouts of its ruler. This will help the people of Ethiopia to make critical decisions on the future of the country. Bring Meles Zenawi out alive or in a coffin for a final farewell. Then we will stand corrected.

Whatever the case, Meles Zenawi’s grip on power is over. The political dynamics has changed permanently with his long absence and the rise of competing forces for power and control. A vicious power struggle has already begun in earnest within the TPLF clique and its servant parties.

It is fair to say good riddance to a brutal tyrant that has tortured our people for over two decades…

Ethiopia in Constitutional Crises?

By Prof. Alemayehu G/Mariam

In an interview I gave to the Voice of America Amharic program last week, I was asked to comment on the nature of constitutional succession in the event of death, disability, resignation, illness, incapacity or removal from power of the prime minster (PM) in Ethiopia. The answer I gave seems to have surprised, shocked, dismayed and appalled many. The Ethiopian Constitution makes no provisions for the orderly transfer of power in the event of a vacancy in the PM’s office. Simply stated, there is no constitutional process for succession of executive power in Ethiopia!

The issue of succession has become critical in light of the prolonged and mysterious absence of the current holder of PM’s office and the garbled official explanation for his complete disappearance from public view. Some Ethiopian opposition leaders have apparently argued for the installation of the deputy prime mister (DPM) as a constitutional successor to the PM or at least serve as acting PM until the final health status of the current holder of the PM’s office is established. Their argument is neither textually nor inferentially supported by any reasonable reading of the relevant provisions of the Ethiopian Constitution.

The office of the DPM is mentioned 4 times in the Ethiopian Constitution, three of which occur in Art. 75; and once in Article 76 in which the DPM is mentioned as a member of the Council of Ministers. Article 75 defines the totality of powers, duties and roles of the DPM:

1. The Deputy Prime Minister shall: (a) perform the duties assigned to him by the Prime Minister; (b) represent the Prime Minister in his absence. 2. The Deputy Prime Minister is accountable to the Prime Minister.

Under Article 75, the DPM is a political creature of the PM’s making, and not an actual constitutional officer with prescribed duties and functions. Unlike the PM (art. 73), the DPM is not “elected”, rather s/he is a mere political appointee who is selected by the PM. Whatever powers the DPM has comes directly and exclusively from the PM, and not the Constitution. The DPM   “performs duties assigned by the prime minister” and has no independent or residual statutory or constitutional duties or powers. The PM directs the activities, functions and roles of the DPM as the PM sees fit. The DPM can be dismissed or replaced by the PM at any time. In short, the  DPM’s office is in reality an empty constitutional shell —  a make-believe office — devoid of any constitutional or statutory responsibilities.

It is important to examine the constitutional nature of the DPM’s office more closely to understand the enormity of the constitutional crisis facing Ethiopia today regardless of whether the current holder of the PM’s office returns to office. The DPM is constitutionally designated as the “representative” of the PM. The term “representative” in Article 75 does not have the same meaning as the term “representative” in the “Council of Representatives” whose members are “elected for a term of five years” with full authority to “represent” their constituencies (Article 58).  The DPM as the PM’s “representative” is not a “PM in waiting or in the wings”. The DPM could stand in or appear on behalf of the PM as directed and assigned, or possibly “represent” the PM as an agent or proxy if specifically authorized. But the DPM  has no independent constitutional powers to “represent” the PM or perform the PM’s duties and responsibilities as the PM’s “representative”.

To be sure, there is no textual basis in Article 75 or in any other part of the Constitution to infer that the DPM can exercise any of the PM’s powers under Article 74. For instance, the DPM has no constitutional authority to function as “the head of government, chairman of the Council of Ministers and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces” under any circumstances. Nor does s/he have the power to act as “acting prime minster” or perform in any other similar capacity in the event of a vacancy in the PM’s office or in the absence of the PM. The DPM does not have the constitutional power or authority to “direct, coordinate and represent the Council of Ministers,” or to “appoint all high government officials.” The DPM cannot “perform other duties assigned to him by this Constitution and other laws” because neither the Constitution nor other “laws” give the DPM any “duties” whatsoever to perform. Whatever the DPM does, s/he does at the direction, supervision and pleasure of the PM.  Practically speaking, the DPM is the PM’s “gofer” (errand runner) and factotutm (handy person), and not a true constitutional officer.

Analysis of Articles 72-75 (“Executive Power”) demonstrates that the DPM’s office was structurally designed as a shadow, symbolic or make-believe office with the manifest aim of giving the public impression that there is a deputy PM who could take over in the event of a vacancy in the PM’s office in the same sense as a vice president would  succeed a president. It is an office created with constitutional smoke and mirrors with the  intention of creating the illusion of a constitutional plan of executive succession without actually creating one. Article 75 could be an amazing constitutional sleight of hand or an egregious omission in constitutional design!

Is Ethiopia in Constitutional Crises?

It is manifest that Ethiopia is now facing not only a leadership and power vacuum but also a monumental constitutional crises in the absence of a constitutional plan or procedure for succession.  A constitution without a clear plan of succession is an invitation to political chaos, conflict and instability. In the United States, the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 (which supersedes other prior succession Acts) establishes the line of succession to the powers and duties of the office of President of the United States in the event that neither a President nor Vice President is able to “discharge the powers and duties of the office.” The Twenty-fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution establishes procedures for filling a vacancy in the office of the Vice President and responding to Presidential disability.

Article 60 of Ghana’s Constitution also provides clear provisions on presidential succession: “(6) Whenever the President dies, resigns or is removed from office, the Vice-President shall assume office as President for the unexpired term of office of the President… (8) Whenever the President is absent from Ghana or is for any other reason unable to perform the functions of his office, the Vice-President shall perform the function of the President until the President returns or is able to perform…” Even North Korea has a plan of succession though the process is a dynastic family affair in which power is passed from grandfather to son to grandson as we have witnessed recently.

Why is there no plan or clear statement or language on succession of executive power in the Ethiopian Constitution? I noted above that the particular design of the office of the DPM could be an amazing constitutional sleight of hand or an egregious omission and irremediable defect in constitutional design. If the drafters of the 1995 Ethiopian Constitution never anticipated, imagined, calculated or believed the person who becomes PM of Ethiopia will ever be removed from office by any means and for any reason and thus designed the DPM’s office as it is, then their omission could be regarded as a grossly negligent act of incompetence for which they should collectively suffer public condemnation and castigation. But it is unlikely that the DPM’s office was designed with such obvious oversight or inadvertence. It is not an act of omission; it is an act of commission.

A reasonable analysis of Article 75 suggests that the drafters intentionally and with great foresight designed the DPM’s office the way they did (toothless, powerless, duty-less) out of an abundance of caution to guard against any potential future loss of the PM’s office (and with it control of the state, armed forces, economy, etc.,) from the hands of those elements who have had a chokehold on the office for the past 21 years.  Given the ethnically tangled nature of Ethiopian politics, the individuals who controlled the drafting of the Constitution understood that the PM’s and DPM’s office could not be in the hands of members of the same ethnic group. That is to say, if the PM is a member of one ethnic group, the deputy prime ministership must necessarily be given to a person from another ethnic group to maintain the illusion of power sharing and play a clever political balancing game. If there is a real possibility of succession under this “power sharing” arrangement, the outcome could be potentially catastrophic to the power brokers controlling the PM’s office in the remote and unlikely event the PM is unable to discharge his/her duties and must leave office.

Under Article 75, the DPM could prove to be a Frankensteinian creation of the PM capable of destroying its own creator. If the DPM succeeds the PM, then the power brokers and structure that supported the PM could collapse with the supporters of the DPM as PM gaining power. As a result, there is high likelihood that the power brokers and supporters of the PM who vacated office could potentially lose power and influence and be marginalized under the new PM. However, the power brokers and supporters of the PM who vacated office could still maintain their power and influence by installing a DPM from one of the minority ethnic groups in the country. By making such an appointment, the PM and supporters effectively create the illusion that members of the country’s ethnic minorities are gaining recognition, power and  status hitherto unavailable or denied to them while immunizing themselves from the criticisms of other major ethnic group contenders who may be making claims to the DPM’s office.

The appointment of a DPM from a minority group ensures that  power remains in the hands of the power brokers and supporters of the PM whether the PM stays in office or vacates for any reason. The only way a DPM from an ethnic minority could survive politically as a PM is with the support of those who supported the PM who vacated office. The DPM as PM simply will not have  a sufficient support base in the party structure, bureaucracy, military, civic society, economic structure, etc. to be able to act independently. The DPM as PM could only survive as a mere puppet in the hands of the power brokers and supporters of the PM who vacated office.

Facing such a daunting constitutional dilemma, the power brokers and supporters of the current holder of the PM’s office will have no viable option but to ram through by unconstitutional means the installation of the holder of the DPM as PM. If such was the design, Article 75 could be regarded as a masterful stroke of political genius unrivalled in modern African constitutional history. The downside is that given the manifest constitutional problems of succession, other power contenders are unlikely to accept such an outcome which is patently unconstitutional and undemocratic. They may insist on a new election for a PM within a reasonable period of time if it comes to pass that the current holder of the PM’s office could no longer perform the duties of that office.

To dodge this enormous constitutional dilemma and avoid an election for a new PM at any cost, the  power brokers and supporters of the holder of the PM’s office could create various distractions and diversions. It is very likely that they could fabricate an emergency (internal by claiming insurrection or external by triggering conflict) and declare martial law.   They could engage in dilatory tactics by refusing to make firm and clear announcements on the status of the current holder of the PM’s office. They could seek the intervention or mediation of outside powers to help resolve the crisis by proposing a short-term transitional solution until a permanent solution is found either by constitutional amendment or new elections. They are likely to use the “constitutional court” under Article 83 to obtain an interpretation of Article 75 which is manifestly contrary to the plain meaning of the constitutional text. No doubt, they will have many tricks up their sleeves to get themselves out of the constitutional jam, buy time and cling to power.

The smart move for the power brokers and supporters of the holder of the PM’s office now would be to take this fantastic opportunity and offer an olive branch to the opposition and invite them to a dialogue on power sharing and other matters. There is no shame, defeat or harm in making a peace offering to the opposition. It has been done in Kenya and even Zimbabwe. It was done in South Africa under the most difficult of circumstances. It has been tried with different outcomes in Burundi, Guinea, Madagascar and the Ivory Coast.

In 2009, Kenya formed a “grand coalition government” among bitter political enemies. They were able to write a new constitution which was approved by an overwhelming 67 percent of Kenyans in 2011. In 2008, President Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai signed a power-sharing deal. Last week, Zimbabwe Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai pushed for approval of a draft constitution prepared by the Select Committee of Parliament on the New Constitution (COPAC). Both countries have a long way to go on the road to full democratization but they are certainly on the right track. The only sensible way out of this constitutional predicament is to follow Nelson Mandela’s prescription: “If you want to make peace with your enemy, you have to work with your enemy. Then he becomes your partner.” It’s the perfect time now for all to bury the hatchet, shake hands and get their shoulders to the grindstone and build a new Ethiopia.

Constitutional Transition From Dictatorship to Democracy

The DPM issue is only the tip of the iceberg of the enormous constitutional crises to face Ethiopia. Those of us in the business of constitutional law and analysis have known of the structural flaw in the design of the DPM’s office, the expansive nature of executive power as well as numerous other flaws in the current Constitution for a long time. Truth be told, our characterization of the current holder of the PM’s office as “dictator” over the years was not mere rhetorical flair but an accurate and precise description based on a careful and penetrating analysis of the Ethiopian Constitution and the way power is concentrated in one office and one person.

A dictator is a person “who has absolute power or authority.” That is what the 1995 Ethiopian Constitution created in Articles 72-75. Article 74 created a PM whose powers are total, unbridled and unlimited and without any plan of succession. The PM and his hand-selected Council of Ministers are the “highest executive authority” in the country. The “Prime Minister” is the “head of government, chairman of the Council of Ministers and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.” The PM is only nominally accountable to the Council of Deputies and the judiciary. S/he is not accountable to the Council of Ministers. In fact, the PM has total and absolute dominance over these institutions. The PM has the power to “dissolve the Council [of Representatives] before the expiry of its term so as to conduct new elections”, dismiss or replace any member of the Council of Ministers at will and nominate and dismiss judges. Under the Constitution, the PM is accountable to no one. The PM’s word is the constitution and the law. The PM is an absolute constitutional dictator though that sounds oxymoronic!

The Life and Death of African Dictators

All dictators believe they can live forever. But only the evil they have done during their lifetimes lives forever. Sitting in the saddle of power, African dictators fear no one, not the people or even God. They have convinced themselves they are heroes and “gods” in their own right. They try to project the image of invincibility and immortality. But they are neither; they are mere mortals. They get sick, they suffer pain and they die like the people they oppressed, jailed, tortured and killed. They hold their people in total contempt and treat them like dumb children. They try to convince their people that they are healthy when they are sick and alive when they are dead.

In the past 7 years, the story we hear in Ethiopia today has been told many times in Africa. In 2005, President Gnassingbé Eyadéma of Togo, at the time Africa’s longest-ruling dictator, died of a “heart attack” as he was being rushed to Europe for treatment. Though he had heart and other serious health problems for years, those facts were hidden from the public until it was suddenly announced that he had passed away. In 2009, Gabon’s long reigning dictator, Omar Bongo Ondimba, died in a hospital in Spain. Government officials in Gabon had long denied he was sick or had any serious health problems. But Bongo had cancer. In 2009, President Umaru Yar’Adua of Nigeria reportedly left the country for what was described as “routine medical check up” in Saudi Arabia. After months of prolonged absence, he returned to Nigeria and died of lung cancer. Earlier this year, President Malam Bacai Sanhá of Guinea-Bissau died at a Paris hospital from what was officially described as “advanced diabetes” and a hemoglobin problem (possibly leukemia). Sanha denied that he had health problems and said his situation “was not as serious as people want to make out”.  President Bingu wa Mutharika of Malawi also died earlier this year from what was described officially as a heart attack after being transported to South Africa in a comatose state.

In all of these cases, the serious health issues were underplayed by the leaders themselves and their officials. They often blamed the cynical opposition for exaggerating news and information of their health condition. The officials in Ethiopia have a constitutional duty under Article 12 to perform their responsibilities “in a manner which is open and transparent to the public”. That transparency includes the duty to divulge full information to the public on the prolonged absence of the holder of the office of PM.

The life and death of President John Atta Mills of Ghana last week stands in stark contrast to the other African dictators. For the past several months, the Ghanaian public was aware that President Mills was having serious health problems.  He was making few public appearances and had retreated from public view, leaving his vice president, John Dramani Mahama, to attend public functions. Though he won the presidency by a razor-thin margin in 2009, Mills soon gained the love, respect and appreciation of his people. In its online editorial, The Nation,  Nigeria’s top circulation publication observed: “The open affection Ghanaians showed President Mills and the Ghana Parliament’s fidelity to constitutional provisions are areas Nigeria can learn from. President Mills respected his office and honoured his people by working hard for them. Little wonder, the people reciprocated by treating him as a rare hero in death.” Africa needs rare heroes. The alternative for Africa’s villains has been prophesied by Gandhi long ago: “There have been tyrants and murderers and for a time they seem invincible but in the end, they always fall — think of it, ALWAYS.”

There is a way out of the constitutional crises and dead end Ethiopian is facing today. Nelson Mandela paved that two way road in South Africa and called it “Forgiveness and Goodness.” We should all prepare ourselves and the people to travel that two-way road. It is time for national dialogue!

Amharic translations of recent commentaries by the author may be found at: http://www.ecadforum.com/Amharic/archives/category/al-mariam-amharic and http://ethioforum.org/?cat=24

Previous commentaries by the author are available at:

http://open.salon.com/blog/almariam/  and http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alemayehu-g-mariam/

Ethiopia: Widespread violations feared in clampdown on Muslim protests

Amnesty International is concerned over the fate of scores of Muslim protestors arrested in Ethiopia during July. The arrests took place in the context of ongoing protests against alleged government restrictions on freedom of religion in the country. The detainees are at risk of torture and other ill-treatment, and there have been numerous reports of beatings in detention against those arrested. Some detainees have been held in incommunicado detention since their arrest without access to family members, often in unknown locations.
Amnesty International is further concerned at widespread reports of the beating of protestors during demonstrations, and other examples of excessive use of force by the police during the arrests and the dispersal of protests, resulting in many injuries to protestors.

Those arrested in July include members of a committee of representatives selected by the Muslim community to represent their grievances to the government and at least one journalist.

Amnesty International fears that the arrests of community leaders, protestors and others in the Muslim community, and the pending charges against certain individuals, are based on their lawful exercise of the right to freedom of expression and the right to organize and participate in peaceful protests.

Addis Ababa’s Muslim community has staged regular peaceful protests throughout 2012 over grievances including an alleged government-backed effort to impose the teachings of the minority Al Ahbash sect of Islam on the majority community, and government interference in elections for the Supreme Council of Islamic Affairs. Ethiopia’s Constitution prohibits state involvement in religious affairs. The protests have regularly attracted large numbers of people over the last six months.

On 13 July a police operation targeted a gathering at the Awalia Mosque and Islamic school compound, in north-west Addis Ababa. The gathering was reportedly discussing further protests and also planning and preparing for a Sadaqah (charity) event two days later, to distribute food to people living in poverty. On entering the compound, police are alleged to have used excessive force against those present, beating many men and women in the compound and made numerous arrests.

The same evening, in response to news spreading about the events at Awalia, large numbers of people headed towards Awalia. Witnesses estimate several thousand tried to reach the compound. But the roads were blocked by police and violence flared between police and protestors. Protestors allege that police again used excessive force including beating protestors. Several sources say that police fired live ammunition, resulting in some serious injuries among the protestors.

Large numbers of those on their way to Awalia were arrested. The government confirmed that over 70 people had been detained on 13 July. Protestors and witnesses reported numbers of between 100 and 1,000 people arrested. Those detained were taken away in large military- style trucks. Detainees were first transported to Kolfe Keranyo police station, and later transferred to police stations closer to their respective homes, according to reports. Many of those detained have alleged widespread beating of detainees inside the police stations. One woman reported that she had been subjected to sexual violence by a police officer during the night of 13 July.

A large proportion of the detainees were released without charge after one or two days’ detention. However, many continue to be detained. Several members of the Awalia student council are reported to be detained in Maikelawi federal police detention centre in Addis Ababa, notorious for the use of torture against detainees during interrogation, as documented on numerous occasions by Amnesty International. Whilst the family of one detainee has been able to have contact with their relative, the families of the other members of the student council say they have not been permitted to contact or visit their relatives, in violation of the right of all detainees to have access to family members.

Other detainees arrested at Awalia on 13 July are reportedly being held in incommunicado detention without access to family members, in unknown locations. Ethiopia’s Criminal Procedure Code demands that all arrested persons are brought before a court within 48 hours to challenge the legality of the detention. Further, incommunicado detention, without access to family members and legal representatives increases detainees’ risk of being subjected to torture or other forms of ill-treatment.

Between 19 and 21 July, members of the committee of chosen representatives of the Muslim community were arrested, including Chairman Abubakar Ahmed, Spokesperson Ahmedin Jebel and committee members Kamil Shemsu, Sultan Aman, Adem Kamil, Jemal Yasim and Meket Muhe. The Committee members are reported to be detained in Maikelawi and are therefore at risk of torture or other forms of ill-treatment.

On 21 July thousands of Muslims gathered at Anwar Mosque, the largest Mosque in Addis Ababa, to protest against the events at Awalia and the arrests of members of the committee. The event became violent as protestors clashed with police. The government states that protestors threw stones and broke the windows of nearby buildings. Protesters allege that the police fired tear gas and that scores of protestors were beaten by the police. An unknown number of further arrests were made.

Other representatives of the Muslim community have been arrested at different points over the last two weeks, including at least one journalist – Yusuf Getachew of the magazine ‘Ye’muslimoch Guday’ (Muslim Affairs). Getachew is also reported to be detained in Maikelawi, and family members are currently denied access to visit him. Another person told Amnesty International that their sister was arrested and continues to be detained, after police caught her carrying a pamphlet entitled ‘Let our voice be heard.’ One woman reported that she and a group of other women had been temporarily detained by the police and threatened ‘not to go to the Mosque making demands.’ Religious scholars, artists, and other journalists are also reported to have been arrested.

Members of Addis Ababa’s Muslim community have told Amnesty International that they now feel targeted and unsafe. Significant police presence has been reported around Mosques.

The government has confirmed to Amnesty International that those members of the committee of community representatives arrested will be charged with criminal offences based on attempting to undermine the Constitutional order. However, Amnesty International is concerned that the men may have been arrested solely because of their legitimate roles as representatives of the community and their organization and participation in a largely peaceful protest movement over the last six month period.

Crimes against the Constitution are included in both the Criminal Code and the Anti Terrorism Proclamation. For many years, hundreds of members of opposition parties have been charged with such offences under the Criminal Code. More recently journalists and opposition members have been charged with similar offences under the Anti Terror law, including in prosecutions related to peaceful protests. The Anti Terrorism Proclamation contains provisions that are excessively broad and can be used to criminalize the exercise of freedom of expression, freedom of association and freedom of peaceful assembly, including organizing or participating in peaceful protests. In recent prosecutions under the Anti Terrorism law the government has equated calls for peaceful protests with terrorist activities, and several journalists and opposition members have been sentenced to lengthy prison terms on that basis.

The Ethiopian government regularly exhibits intolerance of any form of dissent. Journalistic reporting on the Muslim protests has been restricted over the last six months. In May, the Voice of America correspondent was arrested while attempting to report on a rally of the protest movement at Awalia, and was detained overnight in Maikelawi and beaten by police officers. In late July the distribution of the newspaper Feteh, one of the very few remaining independent publications in Ethiopia, was blocked by the government reportedly because its front cover, featuring stories about the Muslim protests and the health of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, posed a threat to national security.

Amnesty International calls on the Ethiopian government to immediately and unconditionally release any individuals who have been arrested solely on the basis of their legitimate exercise of their right to freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly, including by representing the Muslim community and engaging in peaceful protests.

All allegations of torture and other ill-treatment in detention and excessive use of force by police against demonstrators should be subject to immediate, impartial and effective investigations, and where enough admissible evidence of crimes is found, suspected perpetrators should be prosecuted.

Anyone currently held in detention must be brought immediately before a court to challenge the legality of their detention, and subsequently must be promptly charged with a lawful criminal offence consistent with international standards or released. Family members of detainees must be informed of their whereabouts and permitted access to visit them in detention. All detainees must be informed promptly of their right to consult a lawyer.

While some protestors are alleged to have used violence during recent incidents, including by throwing stones at security forces, the use of force, including lethal force, by security forces must comply with human rights standards at all times in order to protect the right to life. Amnesty International urges that any police response to further protests must comply with international requirements of necessity and proportionality in the use of force, in line with the UN Basic Principles on the Use of Force and Firearms by Law Enforcement Officials. These principles state that in the case of violent assemblies, security forces must only use firearms when less dangerous means are not practicable, and only to the minimum extent necessary. They can only be used in very limited circumstances, such as where there is imminent threat of death or serious injury and when strictly unavoidable to protect life. The use of “less than lethal” weapons including tear gas should be carefully controlled to minimise the risk of endangering people not involved in the incident. Amnesty International urges that only those law enforcement officials who are trained in the use of equipment that involves use of force such as tear gas should be authorized to handle such equipment.

Finally, Amnesty International urges the Ethiopian government to respect all Ethiopians’ right to peacefully protest, as guaranteed under the Ethiopian Constitution and in accordance with Ethiopia’s international legal obligations.

Where is Meles Zenawi? Ethiopians don’t know

By Tom Rhodes/CPJ East Africa Consultant
Rumors abound about the health and whereabouts of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. (AFP/Simon Maina)

If you search for the name of Ethiopia’s prime minister, Meles Zenawi, on Twitter these days, you’ll see a flurry of incongruent postings: Meles is hospitalized in critical condition; he’s fine and returning to work; he died two weeks ago; he’s on holiday. Journalists for international news outlets have tried to sort out fact from rumor, but they’ve gotten no help from Ethiopian government officials who offered only vague assurances that the country’s longtime leader was ill but recovering. In Ethiopia, where the government has imposed increasingly repressive measures on the domestic press corps, news coverage has been minimal and contradictory.
International news outlets, such as Reuters, The Associated Press, and the BBC, reported last week that Meles was hospitalized for an undisclosed condition. Reuters, citing diplomatic sources, said he was being treated in Brussels, although even that scant nugget of information was not officially confirmed.

Back home, generally pro-government papers such as Addis Fortune told readers on Tuesday that Meles had returned to Addis Ababa and would be back to work soon. The paper reported that the government provided little other information on his condition. A day later, though, the weekly The Reporter claimed that Meles was merely abroad on holiday.

The government censored the one domestic outlet that tried to report more detailed information. This weekend, the government ordered the state-run printing company not to produce the latest edition of the weekly Feteh, which was to have carried front-page coverage of Meles’ condition. The weekly, which has faced government harassment in the past over its critical coverage, had prepared stories citing information from international news outlets and an exiled Ethiopian group.

“No one has a clear idea,” said Benno Muechler, a German freelance reporter based in the capital. Muechler said he tried to get answers from the government communications office–only to be asked by officials there if he had any leads he could share. “There is an information blackout in Ethiopia,” said exiled journalist Abebe Gellaw, who works for the critical exiled broadcaster Ethiopian Satellite Television. Gellaw noted that most Ethiopians get their information from the national broadcaster, which has vaguely reported that Meles is fine and would be back at his desk soon.

But then, where is Meles, and why can’t he say this himself? “There is no trust in the media, with so many rumors. Whatever news that comes out here, nobody seems to believe it,” Muechler said.
While the Ethiopian public may be skeptical, they are definitely seeking answers. Google Trends reports that searches for Meles have spiked this month, climbing far higher than at any point since the tracking’s earliest date, in 2004. Public speculation about Meles began spreading in mid-July after the premier was conspicuously absent from the African Union Summit held in Addis Ababa. He also missed the ratification of the national budget and the official closing of parliament, according to local reports.

Journalists’ hopes that a government press conference held after the AU summit would clear up the confusion were quickly dashed. “The only thing new that came out of the press conference […] was the official breaking of government silence that has hovered over the issue for three weeks,” Tesfalem Waldyes wrote in Addis Fortune. Government spokesman Bereket Simon revealed only that the prime minister was recovering from an illness, was “exhausted” from his workload despite his “Herculean ability,” and would be back at work soon, according to local reports.

When reporters asked about all the secrecy, Bereket’s response was telling. He said the government did not want to “make a public relations piece out of it” and that the circumspection “is the culture of our party,” according to The Reporter.

Ethiopia’s ruling party has never been open to the public. Despite Bereket’s promises in the past to hold press conferences every two weeks with Meles meeting the press every two months, the government has held only two press conferences in the last eight months and it has been more a year since the prime minister met with the press, according to local reports. “There is a power vacuum at the moment, and so the information is hidden,” said one local journalist, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he feared government reprisal for offering critical comments. “The media has always been controlled by the state so the media has never developed investigative journalism in Ethiopia, and we are lost for answers,”

This information vacuum can have a detrimental effect on both the public and the government. Rumors, rather than facts, inform public opinion, and public confidence in the government is eroded. “Whenever you deliberately spread misinformation, you lose people’s trust,” Abebe told me. “The impact for the government is that it loses credibility.” The silence over Meles is the “old school way of doing things,” writes the Kenya-based Nation columnist Mwenda wa Micheni. “Presidents never went down with a cold, even in the cold months; jesters were regular features and public accounting totally absent, something that locked the continent’s potential for decades,” Micheni writes. “But even as the continent strives to get unchained, a few leaders are stuck in the mud.”

(Reporting from Nairobi)

ምንም ላለመተካት መተካካት – አሥራደው (ከፈረንሳይ)

NO from Zenawi to Zenawi

መቃብር አፋፍ ላይ ሆኖ ቅጥፈት: የስብሓት (ወልደ-ሥላሴ) ነጋ ያመረረ ፀረ-ኢትዮጵያ እና ፀረ-ህዝብ አቋም በተለያዩ ቃለ-ምልልሶች አሥረጂነት (ከሰሎሞን ወልደ-አብ)

On Sebehat nega